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By: Michael Feldstein

12/2/07

With the winter meetings in Nashville to start tomorrow morning, many big deals are in the works, none looming larger than the one the Yankees are vying for, involving Johan Santana.

For many the potential of landing the two-time Cy Young Award winning is decision that doesn’t require a second thought. It isn’t everyday you have the chance to get an ace on your team for the cost of unproven major league pitching and a developing talent in centerfield. There is no question Santana’s impact on the team will be felt immediately, the question is what will it be in five years?

Yankees General Brian Cashman has emphasized over the past few years on building up the farm system with young arms, and develop major league talent from within rather than go out and overpay for mediocre arms. The signings of Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Kevin Brouwn taught the Yankees that sometimes the best source to find arms is from the minor leagues. Smart drafting and acquiring young talent in trades, has helped lead to one of the deepest farm systems the Yankees have had in almost two decades. At the top of that talent lie the arms of right-handers Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy.

Many envision this trio being the pitching staff of the Bronx Bombers for years to come, but the trade for Santana would potentially see Hughes, Kennedy, and centerfielder Melky Cabrera sent off to the twin cities. After the deal the Yankees would have to sign Santana to a long term deal as he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2009 campaign. After dealing over $350 million this off-season, I believe even the Yankees would be weary of adding even more money to their escalating payroll. I’m not saying they can’t afford it, I just believe that in the long run, it might be wiser to hold on to these kids and let them mature and develop as starters.

Experience favors the 29 year-old lefty, and there is no doubt it would give the Yankees a definite and true ace that could compete with the likes of Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, and Erik Bedard. But there is just too much potential from the trio, that I believe they deserve a full season to prove themselves. It hasn’t been often under the Steinbrenner regime that there have been this many young pitchers coming up in the wings. Losing two of them could potentially thin out next years rotation and bullpen leaving the Yankees the options of having Mike Mussina play a significant role as a starter as he nears forty, and maybe even old reliable Carl Pavano. Now I don’t know about you, but I more confidence in some kids pitching than either one of those vets.

They are low risk investments that combined for the next few years will cost the Bombers between one and two million to pitch off the mound. This would allow more focus to upgrade the bullpen and strengthen the bench. So for about the cost of a future Santana start, the Yankees can have three starters pitch 60-75 starts a year. They are all under twenty-five and have all shown flashes the talent they have. Chamberlain showed periods of sheer dominance while Kennedy proved to have good confidence and command, and Hughes shined in the playoffs after missing most of the year (a year he wasn’t even supposed to pitch in the majors) due to a hamstring injury. For once, can this organization stick with the youth because it has paid off recently.

Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, and Chien-Ming Wang have been a testament to just how the farm has been able to produce capable major league talent. Cano is on the cusp of becoming a perennial all-star, while Melky is a defensive jewel who is only 23 and has already shown he has one of the top arms in the game, and Wang’s thirty-eight wins in the last two years is tops in the majors. There were times that the Yankees considered trading away this trio and look at how much they have grown, while costing the Yankees virtually nothing financially.

It is possible that none of these pitchers ever amount to the expectation levels that many have given them. I think it’s worth a shot, because how great would it be if they grown and become staples for over a decade in the rotation with one or two being serviceable quality starters, and one becoming an ace. Keep this in mind as well, Roy Halladay took five years to turn into the ace he is today, so some patience might be required. To me that would make it worth it the gamble and the risk. Don’t forget there is a possibility that they Yankees drop out of the Santana bid and maybe no one picks him up and they can simply sign him next year while keeping the youth intact. To be fair we don’t even know how Santana will handle the media pressure and expectation level of New York considering he has played his whole career in relative obscurity in Minnesota, a place were there aren’t great expectations or a tradition of excellence. Who says he will be the same pitcher in a new environment? That is one of the risks that Santana poses although clearly the positives outweigh that issue. Finally, how much longer will he be able to pitch at this level and will it be worth giving up pieces that could form the next Zito, Hudson, and Mulder rotation? The decision won’t be as easy as you may think.

The next few days in Nashville Brian Cashman and company will have to think long and hard about the future of their franchise. Will it feature a home grown rotation, with a second baseman and centerfielder leading the charge, or will temptation prove too much to resist Santana? Cashman should stick to his plan of building from within as it has already reaped benefits for the organization with the potential of more success. Better to give these guys a chance than be like the Mets who let Scott Kazmir, Jason Bay, and Jason Isringhausen get away. It’s time for the youth movement to begin and they Yankees will still be a contender along the way